The ARIMA model approach for the biofilm-forming capacity prediction of Listeria monocytogenes recovered from carcasses

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The present study aimed to predict the biofilm-formation ability of L. monocytogenes isolates obtained from cattle carcasses via the ARIMA model at different temperature parameters. The identification of L. monocytogenes obtained from carcass samples collected from slaughterhouses was determined by PCR. The biofilm-forming abilities of isolates were phenotypically determined by calculating the OD value and categorizing the ability via the microplate test. The presence of some virulence genes related to biofilm was revealed by QPCR to support the biofilm profile genotypically. Biofilm-formation of the isolates was evaluated at different temperature parameters (37 °C, 22 °C, 4 °C and - 20 °C). Estimated OD values were obtained with the ARIMA model by dividing them into eight different estimation groups. The prediction performance was determined by performance measurement metrics (ME, MAE, MSE, RMSE, MPE and MAPE). One week of incubation showed all isolates strongly formed biofilm at all controlled temperatures except - 20 °C. In terms of the metrics examined, the 3 days to 7 days forecast group has a reasonable prediction accuracy based on OD values occurring at 37 °C, 22 °C, and 4 °C. It was concluded that measurements at 22 °C had lower prediction accuracy compared to predictions from other temperatures. Overall, the best OD prediction accuracy belonged to the data obtained from biofilm formation at -20 °C. For all temperatures studied, especially after the 3 days to 7 days forecast group, there was a significant decrease in the error metrics and the forecast accuracy increased. When evaluating the best prediction group, the lowest RMSE at 37 °C (0.055), 22 °C (0.027) and 4 °C (0.024) belonged to the 15 days to 21 days group. For the OD predictions obtained at -20 °C, the 15 days to 21 days prediction group had also good performance (0.011) and the lowest RMSE belongs to the 7 days to 15 days group (0.007). In conclusion, this study will guide in using indicator parameters to evaluate biofilm forming ability to predict optimum temperature-time. The ARIMA models integrated with this study can be useful tools for industrial application and risk assessment studies using different parameters such as pH, NaCl concentration, and especially temperature applied during food processing and storage on the biofilm-formation ability of L. monocytogenes.