The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Cash Management in Turkish Tourism Companies

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This study aims to examine the cash holding behavior of companies operating in the Turkish tourism sector in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty. Using panel data analysis and dynamic Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) methods covering the period 2015–2023, implemented with Stata software, the impact of multidimensional uncertainty indicators, such as economic policy uncertainty, exchange rate volatility, inflation volatility, and interest rate volatility on cash holding ratios was analyzed. Based on a sample of 18 tourism firms and 162 firm-year observations, the findings revealed that macroeconomic uncertainty has a statistically significant effect on the liquidity management of tourism companies. Dynamic GMM estimation reveals that a one standard deviation increase in economic policy uncertainty increases the cash holding ratio by 1.8%, exchange rate volatility by 2.1%, inflation volatility by 1.4%, and interest rate volatility by 1.0%. A heterogeneity analysis showed that small and financially constrained firms are more sensitive to uncertainty. Furthermore, the increase in the uncertainty effect to 3.8% during the COVID-19 pandemic period highlights the significant impact of systemic crises on liquidity strategies. These findings support the sensitivity of the tourism sector to external shocks and the critical role of cash management for survival.