Determination of the Earthquake Vulnerability Index for the Districts of Istanbul: An Analysis Using the CRITIC Method

English (OpenAlex)

Earthquake risk is a complex phenomenon shaped not only by physical hazard characteristics but also by socioeconomic and demographic conditions. In this study, earthquake vulnerability in Istanbul districts was assessed through a data driven and objective multi criteria decision making framework. The analysis is based on a range of physical, demographic, and socioeconomic indicators, including peak ground acceleration (PGA), population structure, income level, development index (DEI), and vulnerable population groups. To ensure objectivity in the weighting process, the CRITIC (Criteria Importance Through Inter Criteria Correlation) method was used, allowing indicator weights to be determined based on their variability and the relationships between them. The results reveal that social vulnerability indicators, particularly those related to disabled population, development level, and income capacity, play a more significant role than physical hazard intensity. The calculated vulnerability index ( ) shows significant variation among districts, indicating that earthquake vulnerability in Istanbul is highly heterogeneous and strongly influenced by local socioeconomic conditions. This study contributes to the disaster risk literature by providing a transparent and reproducible framework for vulnerability assessment at the district level. From a practical perspective, the results offer a scientific basis for prioritizing resource allocation, supporting targeted response strategies, and developing evidence based policies in the field of disaster risk management. The proposed approach is applicable to other urban areas facing similar risks and can be further enhanced through the integration of spatial analysis and predictive modeling techniques.