Multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) model for building damages in the Kahramanmaraş 2023 earthquakes sequence based on soil, ground motion and earthquake source-path parameters

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Abstract This paper has attempted to determine the weighting levels of the soil and ground motion parameters (engineering bedrock depth (EBd), average shear wave velocity (Vs 30 ), fundamental frequency (f 0 ), peak ground acceleration (PGA), Joyner-Boore distance (R jb ), and epicenter distance (R epi )) in reflecting the actual damage status after the 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes, which have a wide impact area of 11 provinces. The analytical hierarchy method (AHP), a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) process, was used to analyze these parameter data sets obtained from 44 Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency of Türkiye (AFAD) stations (Gaziantep, Hatay, Kahramanmaraş, and Osmaniye). The priority order of the parameters before the analysis was systematically collected. These parameters were categorized into soil, ground motion and earthquake source-path properties. Considering the literature, these characteristics and their combined effects were systematically weighted with AHP under five groups. According to the weighted groups in the scope of the study, the actual damage data can be determined with a minimum accuracy rate of 70% (Group 1). In comparison, the best performance evaluation was 82% (Group 5). The parameter order and weights in the actual damage data evaluation are suggested as EBd-%28, PGA-%24, Vs 30 -%19, R jb -%14, f 0 -%10, and R epi -%5 considering the very high accuracy rate of Group 5. This suggested weighting allows the rapid and effective estimation of the damage distribution after a possible earthquake only with soil, ground motion and earthquake source-path characteristics, even in cases where reliable structure data cannot be obtained.