CA–Markov-based spatio-temporal modeling of land use/cover change in Bozdağ Forestry Management Unit: implications for forest law and governance in Türkiye

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Introduction Understanding historical and current land use/land cover (LULC) and forecasting future LULC are crucial for land classification and management. Methods This study examines changes in land cover within the Bozdağ Forestry Management Unit, governed by the Denizli Regional Directorate of Forestry in Türkiye’s Aegean region, and forecasts LULC trends for 2036 and 2048. LULC changes for 2000, 2012, and 2024 were analyzed, and changes for 2036 and 2048 were projected with an 81.9% similarity rate. Model accuracy was assessed by superimposing the current 2024 LULC map onto the projected 2024 map. Results Coniferous forests decreased from 5183.5 hectares (51.3%) in 2000 to 5117.2 hectares (50.6%) in 2012, but have since markedly expanded to 6004.9 hectares (59.4%) in 2024. Broadleaf forests, absent in 2000 and 2012, expanded to 209.2 hectares (2.1%) by 2024. Coniferous forests are expected to expand from 6004.9 hectares (59.4%) in 2024 to 6559.3 hectares (64.9%) in 2036 and further to 6998.2 hectares (69.3%) in 2048. Broadleaf forest areas are expected to decline from 209.2 hectares in 2024 to 2036 and 2048. Future LULC change is expected to manifest primarily as an expansion of forested regions and a reduction in open spaces. Discussion Generating LULC forecasts through LULC simulation provides a more comprehensive framework for sustainable forest management and land-use planning.