Seismic potential in and around the Muş basin (Eastern Türkiye): Insights from stress analysis and statistical modeling

OpenAlex · Turkish

In this research, current and near-future potential earthquake zones in and around Muş basin (eastern Türkiye) are investigated using the instrumental period earthquake catalog and focal mechanism parameters of local earthquakes. For this purpose, the relationships between the b-value distributions and the Colulomb stress changes are interpreted with different depth ranges (5 to 25 km). Also, for a reliable prediction, the occurrence probabilities, recurrence periods of earthquakes, and the Z-value distribution (seismic quiescence areas) are taken into consideration. 15,722 earthquakes with moment magnitudes with 0.8Mw6.9 between the latitudes of 38.2°N-39.6°N and longitudes of 40.0°E-43.0°E, over a period of 90.63 years between November 12, 1934, and June 30, 2025, are used for all statistical analyses. Completeness magnitude, Mc-value is accepted as 2.50.5. The b-value is determined to be 0.780 ± 0.04, which is smaller than the average (b = 1.0). Additionally, twenty local events with magnitudes greater than Mw≥4.8 are selected to image the Coulomb stress changes. The occurrence probabilities of earthquakes with Mw=5.5, 6.5, and 6.9 in 10 years are predicted as 83%, 27% and 15%, respectively. Recurrence periods of events with these magnitudes are estimated as 13, 32, and 63 years, respectively. Large Z-values are detected in the Kargapazarı segment, Bingöl province, and west of the Kulp and Kozluk segments. Additionally, the analyses of b-value and Coulomb stress change used for hazard prediction reveal a decreasing b-value and an increasing stress change around the Karlıova Triple Junction at a depth of approximately 10 km. Finally, these seismotectonic parameters can represent the possible locations for earthquake occurrences in the near future.