Informality Creep in Formal Housing: A Data-Driven Risk Prioritization Framework for Global South Peripheries

English (OpenAlex)

The rapidly urbanizing peripheries of the Global South face significant demographic pressures, leading to governance deficits that often neglect the long-term structural safety of new buildings. While regulatory frameworks predominantly emphasize initial construction quality, they frequently overlook the critical “post-occupancy” phase, during which distinct structural risks accumulate. This study introduces a reproducible, open-data risk identification framework designed to trace theoretical “windows of vulnerability” in Çekmeköy, a peripheral district of Istanbul. By triangulating temporal, spatial, and demographic municipal administrative records from 2018 to 2024, we illustrated how low-cost data can serve as proxies for prioritizing structural risk assessments. The findings demonstrate that a 103% population increase between 2008 and 2023, coupled with a 21% reduction in the average household size, has generated urgent housing demand that outpaces supply. We hypothesize that these conditions create high-probability zones for “informality creep,” where demographic pressures induce informal practices, such as unauthorized structural modifications within ostensibly formal high-rise settings. The primary contribution is a transferable algorithmic tool, the Weighted Post-Occupancy Vulnerability Index (POVI). Rather than serving as a deterministic building-level diagnostic, this framework operates much like an epidemiological screening process; it acts as a macroscopic prioritization heuristic that allows resource-constrained municipalities to proactively direct their inspection efforts. By mathematically quantifying the conditions under which post-occupancy risks develop, this framework provides an essential resource for enhancing urban resilience during reactive urbanism planning.