Article detail · 2016
Potential impacts of climate change on the primary production of regional seas A comparative analysis of five European seas
- Year
- 2016
- Type
- article
Data source split
- YÖKSİS YÖKSİS article record
- YÖKSİS venue Progress in Oceanography
- Catalog match (ISSN) Progress in Oceanography
- OpenAlex OpenAlex enrichment (abstract, citations, topics)
Abstract
OpenAlex · English
Regional seas are potentially highly vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas’ ecosystems. In this paper we explore the response of five regional sea areas to potential future climate change, acting via atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial vectors. These include the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and are contrasted with a region of the Northeast Atlantic. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within these seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts on: long term changes in elemental budgets, seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton’s exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional model systems each using a common global Earth System Model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and additional sensitivity experiments. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas we consider (Black and Baltic Seas) the increase in stratification is not seen as a first order control on primary production. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change arising from complex combinations of multiple physical drivers, including changes in mixing, circulation and temperature, which act both locally and non-locally through advection.
Topics
Citations
OpenAlex cited_by_count. Not a WoS or Scopus citation count; those sources have no separate column here.
116 citations
OpenAlex cited_by_count (cache / database)
3 publications in the local catalog that cite this work (OpenAlex reference match; not the full global list).
- Evolution of Future Black Sea Fish Stocks under Changing Environmental and Climatic Conditions 2017
- Evolution of Future Black Sea Fish Stocks under Changing Environmental and Climatic Conditions 2017
- Coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic modelling application for climate change impact assessment in the Nemunas River watershed–Curonian Lagoon–south-eastern Baltic Sea continuum 2023