Estimating the Post-Mortem Interval Under Extreme Heat Environments: A Climate-Adaptive Case Series Based on Artificial Intelligence-Supported Diagnostics

OpenAlex İngilizce

Background/Objectives: Accurate post-mortem interval (PMI) estimation becomes increasingly difficult when bodies decompose under extreme heat. Hyperthermal Mediterranean environments accelerate soft-tissue degradation, induce early mummification, and distort classical thanatological indicators, often resulting in substantial PMI overestimation. This study analyzes three forensic cases affected by climate-driven decomposition anomalies and presents a climate-adaptive, AI-assisted diagnostic framework applied uniformly across all cases to improve PMI interpretation. Methods: A retrospective case series analysis was conducted on three individuals recovered during summer heatwaves. Crime scene investigation, post-mortem computed tomography (PMCT), autopsy, and genetic identification were integrated with 5–15-year meteorological datasets. Classical PMI estimations were compared with circumstantial data. A multimodal AI model, incorporating environmental features, decomposition morphology, and microenvironmental modifiers, was operationalized for each case using a hybrid Random Forest–LSTM architecture. Engineered indices included Accumulated Degree Days (ADD), a Decomposition Index, and climate-stress metrics (Thermal Load Index, Desiccation Pressure Factor, Microenvironmental Distortion Coefficient). Quantile regression provided calibrated prediction intervals. Results: Morphological assessments overestimated PMI in every case, suggesting intervals of 1–6 months despite true PMIs of approximately 20 days (Cases 1–2) or 36–48 h (Case 3). The AI model yielded conceptual outputs more consistent with verified PMIs, ~21 days (Case 1), ~23 days (Case 2), and ~42 h (Case 3), each accompanied by 50% and 90% prediction intervals. Explainability analyses identified thermal load, desiccation pressure, and microenvironmental distortion, particularly insulation in Case 3, as dominant drivers. Conclusions: Extreme heat fundamentally alters decomposition trajectories, rendering classical PMI methods unreliable. Applying a climate-aware, AI-assisted diagnostic framework across all three cases improved interpretability, providing uncertainty-aware estimates aligned with true PMIs. The AI framework is presented as a conceptual, non-trained, proof-of-concept system, and reported outputs represent operational demonstrations rather than validated predictions, offering a promising foundation for next-generation PMI diagnostics in hyperthermal forensic settings.