Stochastic Scenario-Based Multi-Objective MILP Optimization of Large-Scale EV Fleets in V2G-Enabled Smart Grids Considering Battery Degradation and Lifecycle Emissions

OpenAlex İngilizce

The integration of large-scale electric vehicle (EV) fleets into vehicle-to-grid (V2G) systems offers significant potential for enhancing the operation of renewable-based smart grids. However, stochastic uncertainties in photovoltaic (PV) generation, vehicle availability, and load demand—coupled with battery degradation and life-cycle assessment (LCA) carbon emissions—pose major challenges to optimal scheduling. This paper proposes a scenario-based multi-objective MILP framework for a 500-EV fleet aggregator. The model incorporates Monte Carlo simulations for multi-source uncertainty quantification (±25% PV forecast errors, ±40% availability), LCA penalties (45 kgCO2eq/kWh), and ancillary service revenues (25 USD/MW-h). Long-term state-of-health (SOH) projections, including a 1-year fade to 96.5%, are also integrated. Comparative analysis of V2X scenarios shows that the V2G Hybrid strategy reduces daily costs by 34.6% (from ~11,000 USD in the uncontrolled case to 7741 USD when reserve revenues are included), achieves over 50% peak shaving, and maintains voltage stability within 0.994–1.008 pu. The stochastic Pareto frontier identifies knee-point solutions that lower normalized expected costs to 134.61 while achieving 1–2% lower expected emissions compared to deterministic baselines. These results demonstrate a comprehensive framework, uncertainty-aware framework that balances economic viability, grid resilience, and environmental sustainability, offering actionable insights for fleet aggregators and policymakers working toward net-zero energy systems.