Fiscal Policies and Political Economy

The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models by Refet S. Gürkaynak, Brian Sack and Eric Swanson. Published in volume 95, issue 1, pages 425-436 of American Economic Review, March 2005

• REFET SOYKAN GÜRKAYNAK

A number of recent articles have used different financial market instruments to measure near-term expectations of the federal funds rate and the high-frequency changes in these instruments around Federal Open Market Committee announcements to measure monetary policy shocks. This article evaluates the empirical success…

• REFET SOYKAN GÜRKAYNAK

In this paper we estimate a bargaining model of government formation in parliamentary democracies. We use the estimated structural model to conduct constitutional experiments aimed at evaluating the impact of institutional features of the political environment on the duration of the government formation process, the t…

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Do mandatory spending programs such as Medicare improve efficiency? We analyze a model with two parties allocating a fixed budget to a public good and private transfers each period over an infinite horizon. We compare two institutions that differ in whether public good spending is discretionary or mandatory. We model…

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• DEREN ÜNALMIŞ

Abstract. This paper takes into account recent advances in econometric techniques and examines Wagner’s Law of long-run relationship between public expenditure and GDP for the Turkish case over the period of 1965-2000. The relationship is supposed public expenditure to be an outcome, not cause, of growth in GDP. Causa…

In this study the relationship between government expenditure and rate of economic growth will be analyzed for Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria by using the data for the period 1995-2011. The main purpose of this study is to test whether there is an “inverted U” shape relationship between public spending and economic grow…

In this study the relationship between government expenditure and rate of economic growth will be analyzed for Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria by using the data for the period 1995-2011. The main purpose of this study is to test whether there is an “inverted U” shape relationship between public spending and economic grow…

• ÖMER FARUK ALTUNÇ

How can voters make sense of economic outcomes they observe when deciding whether to reelect the incumbent? I propose a reference point theory of economic voting that emphasizes voters’ need for reference points when evaluating incumbents’ performance. Consideration of economic outcomes during the incumbent’s term rel…

• SELİM ERDEM AYTAÇ

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• İBRAHİM DOĞAN

The paper investigates the long-run relationships between budget deficits, inflation and monetary growth in Turkey considering two alternative trivariate systems corresponding to the narrowest and the broadest monetary aggregates. While the joint endogeneity of money and inflation rejects the validity of the monetaris…

• EROL TAYMAZ