The Belt and Road Initiative’s impact on income and consumption within the Organization of Turkic States

OpenAlex İngilizce

This study aims to investigate the interactions of per capita income and consumption of the Organization of Turkic States with each other and China based on the BRI framework. To this end, we construct our analysis on a data set that includes per capita of GDP and consumption across 6 countries (including China) covering the period 1990-2019. We utilize a time-varying vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) dynamic connectedness. The analysis results: (i) while there is generally a more fluctuating relationship in both consumption and income variables of the countries pre-2010 period, there is a more regular relationship in the following period (ii) when China is included into the group, improvements are observed at almost all connectedness levels. The contribution of this article is being the first study to examine the impact of the BRI initiative on GDP and consumption expenditures in the Turkish States. While previous findings have mostly relied on studies from all BRI countries, this study has focused on a specific group of countries. In addition, the relationship between income and consumption between countries was examined using a unique empirical approach.