The Impact of Economic Growth and Environmental Indicators on Carbon Intensity: Evidence from Türkiye

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This study analyses the short- and long-term effects of economic growth, human development, energy consumption, and environmental taxes on carbon intensity using annual data from Turkey for the period 1990-2022 within the framework of the ARDL procedure. To assess the robustness of the findings, the long-term coefficients were re-estimated using FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR estimators, and the direction of causality was tested using the Toda-Yamamoto causality method. The empirical results show that, in the long term, increases in income raise carbon intensity, while the square of income reduces it. This sign structure is consistent with an inverse U-shaped relationship and supports the EKC hypothesis for Turkey. While energy consumption increases carbon intensity, human development and environmental taxes do not produce statistically significant effects in the long run. The coefficients obtained from alternative cointegration estimators are consistent with the ARDL findings, indicating that the results are robust to method sensitivity. The Toda-Yamamoto results reveal a unidirectional causality from economic growth, human development, and environmental taxes to carbon intensity.