Understanding success in international mediation: comparing Russian and Turkish mediation attempts in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

OpenAlex İngilizce

International mediation has been used extensively to manage international conflicts. The literature on international mediation has focused extensively on success of mediation and how and why international mediation offers are accepted by conflicting parties. This thesis aims to dwell on both discussions by developing a two-pillar approach to success in international mediation. The thesis argues that the first pillar of mediation is the acceptance of mediation offers, related to the characteristics of mediators, and the second pillar of mediation is either the reduction in conflict behaviour or the achievement of national goals of mediators. This is because the thesis sees mediation not only as a conflict resolution method but also as a foreign policy tool. Since these two approaches will require different outcomes in the evaluation of the post-mediation environment but both of them require the fulfilment of the first pillar of mediation success, the focus of this thesis is on the first pillar. While revealing this, the thesis argues that the more resources a mediator has, the more likely its mediation offers will be accepted. In this line, the thesis rests specifically on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, as both approaches to mediation can be observed in that conflict, and compares the mediation attempts of Russia and Turkey with a focus on their leverages. In addition to this theoretical objective, the thesis also aims to put forth some recommendations for Turkey to increase its likelihood of success in mediating the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.