The Presence and Determinants of Price Bubbles in the Housing Markets: Empirical Findings from Türkiye

OpenAlex · Türkçe

The study examines the formation of bubbles in the housing market using monthly data from 2010 to 2024 for Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, and Türkiye. To investigate the existence of price bubbles, the SADF (Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller) and GSADF (Generalized SADF) tests were applied. The findings show that housing price bubbles formed across Türkiye and in three major cities between 2017 and 2018, and that these bubbles did not deflate in the relevant years. In this study, Probit regression analysis was performed to determine the variables affecting the likelihood of housing bubbles forming in Türkiye. While the dates of bubble formation were taken as the dependent variable, the Central Bank Leading Indicators Index (CBLI), Central Bank Policy Interest Rates (CBPI) and VIX fear index were included in the model as independent variables. It was determined that increases in the CBLI, CBPI and the VIX Index increase the likelihood of bubble formation.