Assessment of climate change for predicting water–energy–food–ecosystem nexus vulnerability in a semi-arid basin

OpenAlex İngilizce

ABSTRACT The Water–Energy–Food–Ecosystem (WEFE) nexus highlights the interconnections between water, energy, food, and ecosystems. This study examines climate change's impact on precipitation and temperature in the semi-arid Sakarya Basin, assessing WEFE nexus vulnerability in the 21st century. Climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) from CCSM4 and MIROC5 were downscaled to 18 km grids for three periods (2020–2030; 2055–2065; 2090–2100) using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The assessment integrates these downscaled data with a range of socio-economic and environmental indicators across seven subbasins. In the most arid, agricultural subbasin, a 22% reduction in precipitation and a 2.9 °C temperature rise are projected. The most populous subbasin may face a 30% precipitation decline and a 3 °C temperature increase. A subbasin, crucial for hydroelectric power, could see a 14% precipitation decrease and a 3 °C temperature rise. These subbasins are identified as the most vulnerable in terms of agricultural productivity, municipal water demand, and energy generation, highlighting significant WEFE nexus challenges. Additionally, the ecosystem sector is highly vulnerable when evaluated against environmental flow parameters. Insights from this study will guide strategies to enhance WEFE nexus resilience in the Sakarya Basin and similar regions under changing climates.