Makale detayı · 2016
Surface creep on the North Anatolian Fault at Ismetpasa Turkey 1944 2016
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
- Yıl
- 2016
- ISSN
2169-9313- Tür
- article
Veri kaynağı ayrımı
- YÖKSİS YÖKSİS makale kaydı
- OpenAlex OpenAlex zenginleştirmesi (özet, atıf, konular)
Özet
İngilizce (OpenAlex)
Abstract We reevaluate the 72 year history of surface slip on the North Anatolian Fault at Ismetpasa since the Mw = 7.4 1944 Bolu/Gerede earthquake. A revised analysis of published observations suggests that days after the earthquake the fault had been offset by 3.7 m and 6 years later by an additional 0.74 m. Creep was first recognized on the fault in 1969 as a 0.13 m offset of a wall constructed in 1957 that now (2016) has been offset by 0.52 m. A carbon rod creep meter operated across the fault in the past 2 years confirms results from an invar wire creep meter operated 1982–1991 that surface slip is episodic. Months of fault inactivity are interrupted by slow slip (≤10 µm/d) or multiple creep events with cumulative amplitudes of 2–10 mm, durations of several weeks, and with slip rates briefly exceeding >2.5 mm/h. Creep events accommodate 80% of the surface slip and individually release ≈ 10−6 shear strain on the flanks of the uppermost 3–7 km of the fault. GPS and interferometric synthetic aperture radar methods yield a current fault slip rate of 7.6 ± 1 mm/yr suggesting that creep meters incompletely sample the full width of the surface shear zone. The slip rate has slowed from >10 mm/yr in 1969 to 6.1 mm/yr at present, 4.65 mm/yr of which appears to be due to steady interseismic creep driven by plate boundary stressing rates. We calculate that a further 1 m of aseismic surface slip will precede the next major earthquake on the fault assuming an ≈ 260 year main shock recurrence interval on this segment.
Konular
- earthquake and tectonic studies
- High-pressure geophysics and materials
- Earthquake Detection and Analysis
Birincil konu earthquake and tectonic studies