Agriculture in Türkiye Under Drought Threat: A SWOT Analysis Based on Expert Views

OpenAlex İngilizce

This study presents a strategic situation analysis of the Turkish agricultural sector. For this purpose, the sector's internal strengths and weaknesses, along with external opportunities and threats, were assessed within the framework of a SWOT analysis. The study aimed to develop policy recommendations for sustainable adaptation and mitigation strategies, considering the projected increase in the severity and frequency of climate change-induced drought events in the Mediterranean Basin. To achieve this, in-depth interviews were conducted with 15 participants, comprising expert academics in relevant fields and agricultural field professionals with at least five years of experience. Data collected through a semi-structured interview form were transferred to MAXQDA 2024 qualitative analysis software and subjected to thematic analysis. The study's findings indicate that climatic diversity, geographical location, natural resources, and biodiversity constitute the core strengths of the Turkish agricultural sector. Additionally, a rich agricultural heritage, alternative production techniques, and youth demographic potential offer significant opportunities. However, a weak institutional structure, technological and infrastructural deficiencies, short-term unstable policies, unconscious resource use, and inadequacies in producer education were identified as significant weaknesses for the sector. Furthermore, environmental and climatic threats, particularly global warming and climate change, along with migration, food insecurity, and high import dependency, severely threaten the future and sustainability of agricultural production. In conclusion, the sustainable future of the Turkish agricultural sector hinges on preserving and developing advantages such as climatic diversity and youth demographic potential, addressing infrastructural and educational shortcomings, and building strategic resilience against import dependency, drought, and other climatic threats.