Determination of epidemic parameters from early phase fatality data: A case study of the 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic in Europe

İngilizce (OpenAlex)

This paper demonstrates that the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model applied to the early phase of an epidemic can be used to determine epidemic parameters reliably. As a case study, the SIR model is applied to the fatality data of the 2009 fall wave cycle of the A(H1N1) pandemic in 12 European countries. It is observed that the best estimates of the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and the mean duration of the infection period [Formula: see text] lie on a curve in the scatterplots, indicating the existence of a nearly-invariant quantity which corresponds to the duration of the epidemic. Spline interpolation applied to the early phase of the epidemic, an approximately 10-week period, together with a future control point in the stabilization region, is sufficient to estimate model parameters. The SIR model is run over a wide range of parameters and estimates of [Formula: see text] in the range 1.2–2.0 match the values in the literature. The duration of the infection period, [Formula: see text] is estimated to be in the range 2.0–7.0 days. Longer infection periods are tied to spatial characteristics of the spread of the epidemic.