Analysis of factors affecting the import demand for wheat and corn in Türkiye using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression Method

İngilizce (OpenAlex)

Objective: In this study, it is aimed to analyze the determining factors on the import demand for wheat and corn, which have an important place in Türkiye's grain imports, with the "Apparently Unrelated Regressions" model. Material and Methods: The data set used in this study consists of annual data covering the years 2006-2021. Stata program was used to analyze the data used in the study. Since Stata or Eviews programs do not provide the Standardized Beta (β) coefficient, statistical analyzes were performed using the formula in Microsoft Excel (β=B*SSXi / SSY). Results: Only the one-year delayed value of wheat imports, which is one of the explanatory variables in the wheat import model, was found to be significant, according to the study's findings. In terms of factors influencing corn import demand, similar results were obtained. Only total corn consumption was found to be statistically noteworthy among the explanatory variables in the corn import model. Conclusion: Based on these findings, wheat imports are influenced by changes in wheat imports from a year ago, while corn imports are influenced by changes in total corn consumption. Based on Türkiye's current structure and the findings obtained, it is understood that the country may continue to maintain its position as an importer of wheat and corn in the future.