From Financial Inclusion to Financial Resilience: Evolving Determinants in Türkiye (2011–2024)

Türkçe

Financial resilience—the capacity of individuals and households to withstand financial shocks and recover without enduring welfare losses—has become an essential indicator of economic well-being in emerging economies. This paper investigates the evolution and determinants of financial resilience in Türkiye from 2014 to 2024, a period marked by macroeconomic volatility, digital transformation, and institutional reform. Using Global Findex microdata and a Generalized Ordered Logit (gologit2) model with robust errors, the study identifies socioeconomic and institutional factors shaping resilience levels—not resilient, vulnerable, and resilient. Results show that income, education, savings behavior, and age significantly enhance resilience. The saving–digital finance interaction reveals that digital inclusion alone does not increase resilience; benefits emerge only when households actively save through digital platforms. Formal borrowing is positively associated with resilience, reflecting short-term liquidity support, while account ownership shows mixed effects. Gender differences become statistically insignificant once income and education are controlled for. Resilience was highest in 2017 but declined toward 2024 amid persistent inflation and income erosion. Findings emphasize that saving incentives, safe digital ecosystems, and institutional trust are crucial for sustaining household resilience.