MEASUREMENT OF MARKET RISK PREMIUMS: A SECTORAL ANALYSIS ON BORSA ISTANBUL

OpenAlex İngilizce

The determination of market risk premium is often a problem for academics and practioners when applying Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). This study intends to measure the market risk premiums (MRP) in the sectors of Borsa Istanbul. The monthly data are extracted from Reuters Database for the period of 2016-2021 for the seventeen sectors of Borsa Istanbul. The whole sampling period is devided into two sub-periods based upon the results of Cusum-Squared test statistics showing a structural break with the Covid-19. The emprical results reveal that the market risk premium on BIST100 is -0.7% with a volatility of 0.3% in the pre-Covid-19 period while the market risk premium on BIST100 is -0.21% with a volatlity of 0.23% post-Covid-19 period. The findings show that a significant increase in market risk premiums and volatilies post-Covid-19 era compared to the pre-Covid era. More, the market risk premiums and their volatilies are estimated by utilizing ARIMA model for the 2022-2024 period. The estimates point even higher market risk premiums and volatilies in the near future.