THE TRIPLE HELIX: OIL PRICES, TRADE TERMS AND UNEMPLOYMENT: A DEVELOPMENTAL ANALYSIS OF TURKIYE

OpenAlex İngilizce

Purpose- This study delves into the intricate dynamics surrounding oil prices, terms of trade, and unemployment, pivotal factors exerting profound effects on the developmental trajectories of developing countries. Methodology- Employing the Vector Autoregressive Model and Granger Causality Test, the research scrutinizes data spanning from 1980 to 2021, with a focus on Turkey as a case study. Granger causality analysis reveals bidirectional causality between terms of trade and unemployment as well as between oil prices and unemployment. Findings The findings underscore the significance of targeted policies to address challenges in developing nations. Strategies aimed at reducing energy dependence, diversifying energy sources, and implementing strategic foreign trade planning emerge as crucial components to steer these countries toward sustainable development. Furthermore, the study advocates for the implementation of employment policies to effectively tackle unemployment rates. Conclusion- The reciprocal relationships observed between these variables highlight the need for comprehensive and multifaceted approaches to address the intricate interplay of economic factors influencing the developmental processes of developing countries. The insights gleaned from this research not only contribute to a nuanced understanding of these relationships but also provide a foundation for informed policy recommendations to promote robust and sustainable development in developing nations. Keywords: Oil, terms of trade, unemployment, vector auto regressive model, Granger Causality JEL Codes: O13, O11, Q43, E24, F14, F43, C32