Gulf Energy Transition: The UAE and Saudi Arabia

İngilizce (OpenAlex)

Abstract The Iran War and resulting instability in the Strait of Hormuz have renewed attention to how Gulf energy exporters manage geopolitical disruption while pursuing energy transition strategies. This article examines how leading Gulf hydrocarbon exporters sustain large‐scale fossil‐fuel exports and advance their long‐term diversification goals, focusing on a comparison of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Drawing on data from international energy agencies, development institutions, and national policy documents, the analysis integrates indicators of export dependence, renewable energy deployment, electrification, hydrogen development, and tourism‐led diversification. The findings reveal two distinct pathways. The UAE emphasizes early structural transformation, diversified generation—including nuclear power—and integration into global clean energy finance networks, while Saudi Arabia follows a scale‐driven and state‐led model under Vision 2030, coupling rapid renewable expansion with industrial localization and active oil market management within OPEC+. These differences reflect variation in policy sequencing and regional strategy rather than divergence in intent. The article argues that energy transitions in hydrocarbon‐exporting economies cannot be evaluated solely through domestic energy mixes or short‐term emissions indicators but require assessment frameworks that incorporate export strategy, revenue allocation, and long‐term capital deployment.