Assessment of Agricultural Water Footprint Dynamics of Niğde Province Using Innovative Trend Analysis

OpenAlex · Türkçe

Climate change and increasing food demand exert unprecedented pressure on limited water resources in semi-arid agricultural basins. This study integrated Water Footprint (WF) and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) to evaluate the sustainability of crop production in Niğde Province (2005-2024). Results revealed a critical hydrological paradox between efficiency and scale. Despite increasing atmospheric water demand (S=79.82), the unit WF showed a significant decreasing trend (S=-348.23), driven by modern irrigation technologies and high-yielding varieties. However, this technical efficiency did not translate into absolute water savings on the regional scale. On the contrary, the Regional WF volume exhibited a distinct increasing trend (S=3.43). This hydrological expansion points to a distinct rebound effect driven by population growth and rising economic demand. Analyses indicate that water savings from efficiency gains were utilized to alter the crop pattern rather than to conserve groundwater. During the study period, the share of wheat declined from 55% to 38%, while high-value but Blue Water-intensive crops such as Potato (18%) and Dry Bean (7.2%) expanded rapidly. Results highlight that technological modernization alone is insufficient; policies must be supported by quantitative allocation caps and strategic planning to alleviate pressure on groundwater.