VALIDITY OF THE UNEMPLOYMENT HYSTERESIS HYPOTHESIS IN TÜRKİYE: ADF AND FRACTIONAL FREQUENCY FOURIER ADF UNIT ROOT TEST

OpenAlex · İngilizce

The unemployment hysteresis hypothesis implies that shocks in the economy have permanent effects on unemployment rates, in other words, unemployment rates that increase due to economic stagnation will not automatically return to their equilibrium level despite economic growth. The aim of this study is to test the validity of the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis in the Turkish economy separately with monthly data with 234 observations and quarterly data with 78 observations covering the period January 2005-June 2024. For this purpose, both the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, one of the traditional unit root tests, and the Fractional Frequency Fourier ADF (FFFADF) test, one of the most recent unit root tests, are used in the analysis part of the study. In the study, Türkiye’s general, male and female unemployment rates are analyzed separately. According to the results of the analysis, it is determined that there is unemployment hysteresis in general, male and female unemployment rates in Türkiye.