Risk-focused operational strategies for humanitarian supply chain stress testing management: a two-stage stochastic programming approach using F-tag tool

OpenAlex İngilizce

This study presents a holistic, lean-based methodology that adopts a continuous improvement philosophy to evaluate the stress level of the Humanitarian Supply Chain under uncertain demand increases following an earthquake. The proposed methodology integrates the value stream mapping (VSM) technique and a two-stage stochastic programming model, incorporating the F-tag tool. A case study focusing on a potential earthquake in Istanbul, Türkiye, is conducted by considering possible scenarios based on the devastating 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye earthquake. In this regard, VSM is employed to visualise the immediate post-earthquake state for Istanbul, presenting both the current and future states. Based on the optimisation model, a comparison between centralised and decentralised distribution strategies is conducted to enhance network resilience and contribute to overall supply chain sustainability during the ripple effects caused by the disruption. A design of experiments (DOE) setting is established to analyse the controlled factors and their interactions, using the Red Tag Ratio as the response variable.