IMPACT OF COVİD 19 ANNOUNCEMENTS AND GOVERNMENT RESTRİCTİONS ON CDS PREMİUMS OF BRICS-T COUNTRİES

OpenAlex İngilizce

: In this study, the impact of changes in the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths, as well as government restrictions taken to reduce the transmission rate of the pandemic, on the CDS premiums of BRICS-T countries, which are risk indicators, was examined. The data for the study includes the number of deaths and cases as COVID-19 announcements, the stringency index calculated by the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) for government restrictions, and the CDS premium prices for Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and Turkey. The study conducted Kao and Pedroni cointegration tests, Dumitrescu Hurlin and Granger causality analyses, and static panel data analysis. According to the analysis results, the cointegration tests indicate a long-term relationship. Both causality test results show a causal relationship from government restrictions to country CDS premiums, while no relationship could be determined from the number of cases and deaths. The static panel analysis results indicate that only government restrictions have a positive and significant effect on CDS premiums. In conclusion, the study shows that the increase in restrictions, along with the pressure of government restrictions on the economic system, also increases the risk of emerging and developing countries.