Green Finance and Agricultural Sustainability: A Panel Data Analysis of Climate-Resilient Investment in Emerging Economies

Türkçe

This study investigates the long-run relationship between green finance and agricultural sustainability in a balanced panel of 20 emerging economies over the period 2000–2022. This empirical study aims to analyze the impact of green finance on the long-run agricultural sustainability in emerging markets having focus on the impact of green bond issuance and ESG investments on agricultural total factor productivity using the Panel DOLS method. Agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is employed as the principal proxy for sustainability, while green finance is measured through green bond issuance and ESG-related investment flows. The analysis further incorporates climate-resilient agricultural investment as a mediating channel, alongside macroeconomic controls including GDP per capita, inflation, and rural population share. Panel Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) was employed to account for endogeneity, serial correlation, and cointegration dynamics. Complementary estimators—Fixed Effects and FMOLS—were also applied to validate robustness. A series of diagnostic tests confirmed the validity of model assumptions, with no evidence of heteroskedasticity, serial correlation, or multicollinearity. Results revealed that green bond issuance and ESG investments exerted a statistically significant and positive impact on agricultural productivity, whereas inflation and income-level disparities were found to be constraining factors. These findings highlight the transformative role of green finance in shaping sustainable agricultural outcomes in developing regions. The empirical strategy adopted herein offers policy-relevant insights for promoting climate-resilient investment frameworks in alignment with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).