Projection of meteorological drought in Türkiye’s Mediterranean region based on multi-model ensemble from CMIP6

İngilizce (OpenAlex)

In this study, drought projections in Türkiye’s Mediterranean region under future climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) were investigated using Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). First, Multi-Model Ensembles (MME) were created with the GCMs that best predicted the observed precipitation and temperature values using ANN-based statistical downscaling. Using the MME outputs, it assesses changes in drought indices for 2021-2060 and 2061-2100, compared to the baseline period of 1979-2020. Results indicate that future drought indices calculated by the SPEI method are more severe than calculated by SPI, highlighting the significance of potential evapotranspiration (PET) values in drought monitoring. Furthermore, there is a notable increase in PET, especially in coastal regions, where it is projected to rise up to 120 mm/year by the century’s end under the SSP5-8.5. Due to significant temperature increases, the expected increase in drought severity and frequency is more pronounced in mountainous areas.