Döviz Kuru ile Genişletilmiş Taylor Kuralı: Panel Veri Analizi

OpenAlex Türkçe

In 1990s, the emergence of high inflation problem in many countries provided a ground for developing a strategy of monetary policy termed inflation targeting.Inflation targeting is a framework, in which central bank explained its next inflation target to public opinion.In the scope of inflation targeting regime, the most used method in determining short term interest rates is Taylor Rule.The Taylor rule is a monetary policy rule that foresees Central bank policy rates determined by deviating from targeted inflation and output potential.In this study, the validity of the augmented Taylor rule including the inflation rate and interest rate as well as the exchange rate, was estimated with panel data methods in selected countries implementing the inflation targeting strategy.According to the augmented Taylor rule, the elasticity coefficients of inflation and output gap on nominal interest rate is expected to be positive and exchange rate elasticity coefficient is expected to be zero.The results of the econometric analysis provide the validity of the Taylor rule implying that the interest rate is an important tool in controlling inflation for selected countries.However, the elasticity coefficient of the exchange rate gap was negative for all sample countries.The econometric results show that when determining interest rate policy, in the selected countries take into account the inflation and the output gap except the exchange rate gap.